September 2026 Market & Economic Report
Gulf Coast CMLS figures and the latest economic data. See the latest report
September highlights
- Commercial sales were up 34.6% from August 2026.
- Commercial leases were down 5.7% from August 2026.
- New commercial listings were down 20% from August 2026.
- Pending sales and leases were down 9.1% from August 2026.
- Year-to-date sales volume for 2026 stands at $345,206,115.
The economy at a glance
- The Federal Reserve's target range for short-term interest rates is 3.75-4.00%, the same as a year ago. The prime rate, which many business loans and lines of credit are priced from, is 7.00%, down from 7.25% a year earlier.
- The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark most commercial mortgages are priced from, closed at 4.98% on Oct 29, 2026, up from 4.08% a year earlier.
- The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in Q3 2026. Investment in commercial buildings and other nonresidential structures grew at a 5.4% annual rate, compared with a decline of 7.7% in Q3 2025.
- Core inflation (the PCE price index excluding food and energy, the Fed's preferred measure) was 3.1% over the 12 months to September 2026, up from 2.8% a year earlier.
- Unemployment in September 2026: 4.8% in the Pensacola metro area, 4.4% in Florida and 4.2% nationally.
Sources: Federal Reserve (fed funds target, prime rate, 10-year Treasury); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, structures investment, core PCE prices); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S., Florida, Pensacola metro unemployment). Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, on November 2, 2026. Each figure is the latest published on that date.
Broker’s Take
September was a sales month on the Gulf Coast. Commercial sales closed in the CMLS rose 34.6% from August, to 35, while leases slipped 5.7% to 49. The median sale price came in at $367,000, and the average lease rate was $13.98 per square foot, down from $21.21 in August. A single month's lease average moves with whichever spaces happen to sign, so I read that as a mix of deals rather than a market reset.
Supply is where I would focus. New commercial listings fell 20% from August and pending deals fell 9.1%, with 2,892 listings active. Nationally, CBRE says rate swings are pushing some deals into repricing or delay (CRE Daily), and retail construction starts have dropped to their lowest level since 2016 (CRE Daily).
That lines up with what we are seeing at Bay City Realty. We have closed several leases this fall, so tenant demand is there. On the investment side, it has been difficult to find properties at the right cap rate: with today's financing costs, the numbers have to work at the purchase price, and many offerings don't yet.
For owners, little new space coming out of the ground means existing buildings face less competition, and a seller who prices to today's rates can still get a deal done. For investors, patience and quick action both matter: the right deal is scarce, so have your financing and criteria ready before it surfaces.
Mehdi Moeini, CCIM, CPM, MiCP | Broker, Bay City Realty
Sources: CRE Daily: CBRE says rising rates are repricing and delaying CRE deals, CRE Daily: Retail starts hit a 10-year low as pipeline falls to 58.3M SF.
2026 trends
Sales and leases closed
Median and average sale price
Average days on market
Listings inventory, sale and lease
2026 month by month
| Month | Sales | Leases | Median price | Average price | Lease rate / sq. ft. | Days on market, sold | Days on market, leased | Active | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 35 | 49 | $367,000 | $560,661 | $13.98 | 363 | 311 | 2,892 | 158 |
| August 2026 | 26 | 52 | $412,500 | $642,008 | $21.21 | 373 | 225 | 2,818 | 174 |
| July 2026 | 44 | 45 | $525,000 | $989,551 | $19.50 | 354 | 246 | 2,848 | 178 |
| June 2026 | 45 | 54 | $475,000 | $818,000 | $18.87 | 395 | 232 | 2,663 | 168 |
| May 2026 | 55 | 54 | $385,000 | $1,548,489 | $15.30 | 354 | 163 | 2,730 | 158 |
| April 2026 | 49 | 79 | $460,000 | $742,648 | $17.12 | 340 | 325 | 2,795 | 176 |
| March 2026 | 42 | 65 | $465,000 | $545,605 | $17.44 | 400 | 372 | 2,859 | 167 |
| February 2026 | 38 | 43 | $357,500 | $715,578 | $19.23 | 364 | 281 | 2,697 | 188 |
| January 2026 | 51 | 70 | $265,000 | $615,014 | $17.57 | 368 | 324 | 2,849 | 181 |
The average sale price swings from month to month because it reflects whichever properties happened to close. The median is the steadier guide.
Past reports
2026 market reports
About these figures
The market figures on this page come from the monthly market statistics published by Gulf Coast CMLS (copyright Pensacola Association of REALTORS, Inc.). They describe commercial listings in that system as a whole, not any single property or submarket, and are reported here as published. View the original September 2026 report. The economic figures come from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as listed under “The economy at a glance”.
Want to know how these numbers apply to a specific property or lease? Ask us.
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